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What To Do With Aroldis Chapman?
Written by Dave Biddle   
Wednesday, 24 March 2010 16:02
File this under the "good problems to have" category.

During the early stages of spring training, it looked like Cuban sensation Aroldis Chapman was going to force the Cincinnati Reds' hand.

There is no question in my mind the Reds' brass intended for Chapman to begin the 2010 season in the minor leagues. However, he was so lights-out impressive in his first three spring training appearances that many believed he was on the verge of locking down the job as the team's No. 5 starter to begin the season.

But then Chapman suffered some type of back injury this week - believed to be minor, but you never know with back strains. Regardless of the severity of the injury, I fully expect the team to be extra cautious with him, meaning you can look for him to start the season in AA Carolina or AAA Louisville. He's only 22 and has never pitched in the minors. He does have valuable experience on the Cuban national team, but it wouldn't be a bad idea to get him some seasoning in the minors before he faces Big League hitters in real games. And the back injury - even if it is minor as expected - could be the perfect excuse for the team to hold him back just a bit.

But why would they want to do that? Because of the complexities of his contract. I won't pretend to know every aspect of the 6-year, $30-million deal, but from my understanding it will be much-more beneficial in the long term from the Reds' standpoint if Chapman remains in the minors until sometime in June. That would allow Chapman to avoid what MLB calls "Super Two" status and he wouldn't become arbitration eligible until after the 2013 season.

In addition, Chapman wouldn't be able to become a free agent until after the 2016 season, making his current deal with the Reds actually a seven-year contract.

In contrast, if he begins the season with the Reds and sticks for the majority of the season, he would be arbitration-eligible after the 2012 season and would become a free agent at the end of the 2015 season.

So, think about that if you're general manager Walt Jocketty and the rest of the Reds' front office: If you are patient for two months, you not only get Chapman locked up for an extra year, you will get to pay him less over the course of the contract. It's a 6-year, $30-million deal only in theory. It's really a three-or-four-year deal (depending on when he makes his Reds' debut) and he then becomes arbitration-eligible after that.

If you have a headache now, you should. But the bottom line is that Chapman has been even better than advertised and Reds fans have reason to be excited. However, don't expect to see him until June.

If it does play out that way, Matt Maloney would likely get first crack at the No. 5 spot in the rotation. He would merely keep the seat warm for Chapman until June though (unless Maloney tears it up, which seems highly unlikely). I would still prefer to see Travis Wood in there (if they don't go with Chapman) but it's a safe bet that Wood begins the year at Louisville.

 
Reds Rapid Fire
Written by Dave Biddle   
Tuesday, 16 March 2010 21:55
Look at me, I can be ... centerfield - Drew Stubbs was the favorite to be the everyday centerfielder when Spring Training began, but Chris Dickerson is playing well so far this month and might have the inside track on the Opening Day job. In all honesty, it probably doesn't matter who gets the Opening Day nod since the two will likely be in a platoon situation for most of the year.

Stubbs looked good in a cameo role in September last year after being called up to the Majors for the first time. However, the former first-round pick has struggled throughout his minor league career to put up good numbers, so it's foolish to think he's going to suddenly be a good hitter for the Reds. He is an excellent defender who is probably always going to have consistency problems at the plate.

Dickerson didn't exactly tear up the minors either, but I just think he's more ready for the job at this point. Stubbs has the higher ceiling and is the younger player, but looking at the 2010 Reds as an isolated case, I expect Dickerson to be the guy who get the majority of starts in center. He's nearly as good as Stubbs defensively and is not a liability at the plate. And considering Dusty Baker is going to bat the CF in the leadoff spot no matter what (hello, Willy Taveras!) offense is a big part of the job description for the Reds' centerfielder. If it were up to me, Stubbs would bat eighth when he's in the lineup ... at least until he's ready to hit at this level. But Dusty will never do that.

So, don't be surprised to see Stubbs struggle and Dickerson to get the majority of starts in center. A lot of people just assumed that Stubbs would start 140 games this season after he was called up last year and held his own. But September baseball with the pressure off is completely different than April and May when every team in baseball thinks they have a shot. OK, except the Pirates.

No. 5 starter - It is sure going to be tempting for the Reds to insert 22-year-old Aroldis Chapman as their No. 5 starter to begin the season. However, due to the wording in his contract, Chapman likely won't be called up until mid-May.

I'm also big on 23-year-old Travis Wood who tore up the minor leagues last year and is very close to being ready for the show. And 2009 first-round draft pick Mike Leake has also been impressive so far in the early stages of spring.

However, I also expect both of them to begin the season in the minors. Wood has an outside shot at making the team, but Leake hasn't even pitched a single inning of minor league ball. It would be very surprising if either of them made the team out of spring training. (And no, the Reds have not had this kind of starting pitching depth for years ... and all this without Edinson Volquez who is out until probably early August as he recovers from Tommy John surgery.)

Therefore, my money is on lefty Matt Maloney to win the final starting spot to begin the season as he keeps the seat warm for the electrifying Chapman.

Speaking of the Cuban Missile, things couldn't have gone any better for him up to this point. His effortless delivery and ability to hit 100 MPH consistently has Reds fans more excited than they've ever been about a pitching prospect. And although it's extremely early, Chapman's control (allegedly his one weakness) hasn't been bad either. He's a rangy 6-foot-4 lefty with a smooth delivery and he is going to be a nightmare for batters to face.

But it won't be until late May or June if I had to guess.

Jonny Gomes - Sounds like he's pretty close to locking down the Opening Day LF job. He will platoon with others throughout the season (also in the running in LF is Wladimir Balentien, Laynce Nix, Chris Heisey, Todd Frazier [who can play anywhere on the field except pitcher and catcher] and Juan Francisco) but Gomes has been impressive this spring and he's probably going to get the majority of at-bats this year in LF. Have to think he will start every game against lefties and will also have a good share of starts mixed in against right-handers.

Frankly, the Reds are fortunate that there wasn't another team out there that wanted Gomes this offseason. Once the Reds didn't offer him arbitration, I thought he was gone for sure. And now it looks like he's going to be in the everyday lineup and will provide the power-hitting right-handed bat that the team needs.

Utility man - There are several players vying for the role of "utility man" this spring. The three at the top of the list are Aaron Miles, Drew Sutton and Frazier. Miles is probably the favorite since the Reds are on the hook for $2.7 million this year due to his contract, however it wouldn't be a total surprise to see Sutton win the job. He had a very impressive season in the minors in 2008 and a bout with mono really affected his '09 season. Many have compared him to Ben Zobrist of the Tampa Bay Rays and if he ends up being half that good Reds fans will rejoice.

Frazier is also an intriguing option because he has a good stick and can play so many positions.

Then again, money usually talks, so Miles is the safe bet to win the job. But it's going to be interesting to monitor this situation the rest of spring. The Reds' bench has been an extreme weakness in recent years and there is the chance that could change this season.

Winning record? Really? - Yes, really. The Reds haven't had one since 2000, but this is the year they are finally going to break through with more numbers in the W column than the column on the right. I predicted 83-79 a few weeks ago and I'm standing by that.

I think the Cardinals will win the NL Central, while the Reds will finish second and will be in the wildcard race. I look for the Cubs to really struggle this year. (Or is that just wishful thinking?  No, their roster does not impress me at all this year.) The Brewers will be solid, but I like the Reds' roster a tad better. The Astros will likely struggle and the Pirates are the Pirates.

 
Bengals Bag Bryant
Written by Dave Biddle   
Wednesday, 10 March 2010 21:13
The Cincinnati Bengals addressed their biggest offseason need when they signed wide receiver Antonio Bryant to a four-year, $28-million contract on Wednesday.

I'm often hard on the team's front office - it's impossible not be at times - but credit goes out to them for being aggressive and landing the best WR on the free agent market.

Yes, Terrell Owens, I said the best receiver on the free agent market. Owens is 36, while Bryant is 29. Although no one takes care of their body better than Owens (hello HGH!) there is no getting around the fact that he is an old wideout by anyone's standards and doesn't have many years left. His decline as a player has clearly already commenced.

The Bengals already have one nearly-over-the-hill WR in Chad Ochocinco, 32, and the team certainly didn't want to add someone four years his elder if they could avoid it. I agree with this piece on ProFootballTalk.com that the Bengals likely used Owens as leverage to sign Bryant. (And Owens was a fallback option for one year if the team had been unable to sign Bryant.) One thing that I disagree with PFT on is I believe the team had sincere interest in Brandon Marshall, but the Bengals did not want to give up premium draft picks (at least a first-rounder and maybe a 1 and 3) even for a player as special as Marshall.

If I were rating the current talent level of the three WRs that the Bengals considered this offseason, they would go Marshall, Bryant and Owens in order.

And yes, it's also interesting that all three of them have a reputation of being a headcase - just like Ochocinco.

I think Chad and Bryant will mesh well together as Chad as always gotten along with his fellow wideouts. Which leads me to an excerpt from the earlier-mentioned Bryant piece on PFT:

"It's the same basic package the Ravens gave to receiver Anquan Boldin last week, and it's roughly the third tier of wideout contracts beneath Larry Fitzgerald ($10 million per year) and Randy Moss and Roy Williams ($9 million)," editor Mike Florio wrote. "By all appearances, the Bengals flirted with Terrell Owens to placate receiver Chad Ochocinco, and possibly to leverage Bryant.  We also think that internal discussions regarding a possible run at Broncos receiver Brandon Marshall were aimed at knocking down the expectations of both of the unrestricted free agents with whom the Bengals negotiated.

"In the end, it's a big contract by Bengals' standards - and it instantly makes Ochocinco second fiddle in Cincinnati."

In terms of the last seven words of that excerpt, Florio couldn't be further off. Ochocinco will never be second fiddle to anyone while with the Bengals. Well, unless you are talking in financial terms (he will make $5 million in 2010) but as far as media exposure, statistics and all the rest, Chad will still be the Bengals' No. 1 receiver and Bryant will be the No. 2.

But he's going to be a damn good No. 2.

 
‘Lavernebust’ gets pink-slipped by Bengals
Written by Dave Biddle   
Friday, 05 March 2010 00:58
The disaster that was the Laveranues Coles experience mercifully came to an end on Thursday as the Cincinnati Bengals released the underachieving wide receiver.

Coles, 32, was signed a year ago to replace T.J. Houshmandzadeh as the Bengals' slot receiver, but he was a disappointment from the word go. Coles dropped several passes, had obviously lost a step and was no longer explosive, and of course was undersized to begin with at 5-foot-11, 200 pounds.

Add it all up and it was yet another terrible decision by Mike Brown and the Bengals' front office.

Let's take a closer look at just how bad they managed this situation: They allowed Houshmandzadeh, now 32, to become an unrestricted free agent and he signed a 5-year, $40 million contract (with $15 million guaranteed) with the Seattle Seahawks. The Bengals almost immediately turned to Plan B and inked Coles to a 4-year, $28 million deal with $10 million guaranteed. So, the money wasn't all that different in NFL terms.

Cincinnati should have slapped the franchise tag on Houshmandzadeh (it would have cost them about $10 million for one year, the same amount of loot they wasted on Coles), but inexplicably instead chose to use it on kicker Shank Graham. (Oh, his first name is Shayne? My fault. I need to be more clutch with my blogging.)

It's one thing to use the franchise tag on a kicker when you have no other free agents that you want to keep. (It would also help if said kicker was actually good.) However, the Bengals obviously wanted to keep Houshmandzadeh because they ended up offering him basically the same deal the Seahawks offered. However, the damage had been done since the Bengals (sit down for this, you will be shocked ...) low-balled him when negotiations first began. Therefore, even though the money ended up being similar, Housh felt more love from the Seahawks and decided to sign with them.

And it was a lose-lose situation for everyone involved. Well, for everybody except Coles who was one of the most-overpaid players in the NFL last season judging by his production. The Florida State product had just 43 receptions for 514 yards (11.9 yards per catch) and five touchdowns.

Meanwhile, Houshmandzadeh had 79 receptions for 911 yards (11.5) and three TDs, despite the fact that he played for one of the worst teams in the NFL and quarterback Matt Hasselbeck was in and out of the lineup all season due to injuries.

In other words, franchising Graham and not Houshmandzadeh was a huge gaffe by the Bengals' front office and it was one of the differences between the team being good and not great in 2009.

Making matters worse, the Bengals are still searching for a No. 2 wideout to compliment Chad Ochocinco and they will either have to find him via free agency or in the draft. I think Andre Caldwell is a decent No. 3 receiver, but folks, he is not a legit No. 2 WR in the NFL. If Caldwell is the No. 2 to start  the 2010 season, that means the Bengals had a poor offseason of addressing this very serious need.

As for the draft, I am still holding out hope that the Bengals will somehow luck their way into landing Dez Bryant from Oklahoma State. They certainly aren't savvy enough to trade up a few spots for him - which it what it will likely take - but maybe he will fall in their lap at pick No. 21. However, I find that highly unlikely. Bryant will probably be taken somewhere around picks 11-15 if I had to guess. So, it wouldn't take the Bengals selling the farm to move up to get him, but I still have no faith that their front office would ever be smooth enough to pull off a move like that.

As for unrestricted free agents, there isn't exactly a deep pool to pick from at the WR position. Terrell Owens and Antonio Bryant are the biggest names, but they are both head-cases and Owens will soon be applying for his AARP card. There is also Kevin Walter who the Bengals foolishly let get away four years ago when the Texans signed him to a very-reasonable contract.

So, it will be interesting to see what the Bengals do to improve the WR situation. However, put me in the camp that has zero faith that the front office will push the right buttons.

Oh, and by the way, signing Matt Jones was not the answer. Well, unless the question was, "Name a WR that will probably not even make the Bengals' roster in 2010."

 
2010 Cincinnati Reds pitching staff, lineup, prediction
Written by Dave Biddle   
Monday, 22 February 2010 16:13

2010 CINCINNATI REDS


Below is the information for the '10 Reds line-up, so you can get an idea of the way this season might end up going. Hopefully it'll be a good run for the Reds, as some issues in the past with management would be easily interpreted as free ads for incompetence on behalf of the boys in charge. We're looking at a 83-79 record prediction, so make of that what you will - hope the information provided comes in useful.

STARTING PITCHING ROTATION

  1. Bronson Arroyo
  2. Aaron Harang
  3. Johnny Cueto
  4. Homer Bailey
  5. ???

(Edinson Volquez is returning from Tommy John surgery and is expected to return in early August.)

CANDIDATES FOR No. 5 SPOT (in alphabetical order)

  • Aroldis Chapman
  • Mike Leake
  • Justin Lehr
  • Mike Lincoln
  • Matt Maloney
  • Micah Owings
  • Kip Wells
  • Travis Wood

BULLPEN (in order of importance)

  • Francisco Cordero (closer)
  • Arthur Rhodes (lefty)
  • Nick Masset
  • Jared Burton
  • Danny Ray Herrera (lefty)
  • Micah Owings
  • Mike Lincoln

OTHER BULLPEN CANDIDATES (in order of importance)

  • Carlos Fisher
  • Pedro Viola (lefty)
  • Enerio Del Rosario
  • Logan Ondrusek
  • Bill Bray (lefty ... coming off Tommy John surgery)

LINEUP

  1. Chris Dickerson/Drew Stubbs - CF
  2. Orlando Cabrera - SS
  3. Joey Votto - 1B
  4. Brandon Phillips - 2B
  5. Jay Bruce - RF
  6. Scott Rolen - 3B
  7. Wladimir Balentien/Jonny Gomes/Laynce Nix - LF
  8. Ramon Hernandez - C

RESERVE CANDIDATES

  • Balentien/Gomes/Nix - OF
  • Aaron Miles - 2B, SS, 3B
  • Paul Janish - SS
  • Ryan Hanigan - C
  • Juan Francisco - 3B, LF (likely to begin season in AAA)
  • Todd Frazier, INF, LF (likely to begin season in AAA)
  • Drew Sutton - 2B, 3B, SS

RECORD PREDICTION: 83-79

 
Reds' offseason finally complete
Written by Dave Biddle   
Monday, 22 February 2010 14:15
The final move of the Cincinnati Reds' offseason finally occurred on Monday as the team re-signed outfielder Jonny Gomes.

Gomes, 29, batted .267 with 20 home runs and 51 RBIs in 281 at-bats with the Reds last year (with an OPS of .879). Cincinnati decided to not offer Gomes arbitration after the 2009 season, which made him a free agent. However, somewhat surprisingly, there was not a single team that snatched him up on the open market. Therefore, the Reds were able to get him back at a discount price (what is expected to be around the veteran minimum of $700,000).

The Reds now have four legitimate candidates for what will likely be a platoon situation in left field this year. Two of them are right-handed hitters (Gomes and Wladimir Balentien) and two of them are left-handed batters (Chris Dickerson and Laynce Nix).

Maybe this is a homer point of view, but I firmly believe the Reds can make something position out of that situation. One of the right-handed hitters and one of the lefties will make the Opening Day roster and they will platoon as the starting left fielder. Gomes or Balentien would start against left-handed pitchers, while Dickerson or Nix would start against righties.

There are also three young players in the mix for the left field spot: Juan Francisco (who has played mostly third base during his minor league career), Todd Frazier (who also has played mostly infield, but was moved to left field last year) and Chris Heisey. There is reason to be excited about each of them, but I bet they will all start the season in Louisville at the AAA level.

As for Gomes, a lot of people incorrectly assume 2009 was a career year for him and he'll never be that productive again. However, it wasn't even his best season in the Major Leagues.

In 2005 with Tampa Bay, he hit .282 with 21 home runs and 54 RBIs in 348 at-bats (with an OPS of .906).

Does the guy have his faults? Yes. He's not very good defensively (which the Reds can live with this year since they are solid defensively in every other position on the field). He also doesn't hit righties well. However, his main role will be to hit against lefties (either as a starter in a platoon role in LF, or as a power-hitting pinch hitter) and there is no question he does that well. Gomes can flat out rake.

Entering the 2010 season, my biggest concern about the Reds is run production. The pitching staff is solid (rotation and bullpen). The defense is finally up to par (at least it's expected to be). However, this is a team that will struggle scoring runs on occasion and Gomes is a player that can help out quite a bit in that department.

This was a very solid offseason for the Reds, highlighted by the signing of pitcher Aroldis Chapman. He is a left-handed Cuban defector that can get his fastball up near 100 miles per hour, but he likely won't be ready to help the Reds very much until 2011 (although there is an outside shot he could win the No. 5 spot in the rotation this year).

The team also addressed its glaring hole at shortstop with the signing of Orlando Cabrera, and they filled in some other holes with bargain-basement signings like Nix and Gomes (who were each pleasant surprises last year ... although Nix did fade after a hot start). They also re-signed catcher Ramon Hernandez (who forms a nice tandem with Ryan Hanigan) and now they enter the season with the belief that they might actually have their first winning season since 2000.

 
Tiger full of it; gullible golf media buys it
Written by Dave Biddle   
Friday, 19 February 2010 12:17
Today, you are going to get the third part of Three-Way Chili. This blog is devoted to the Bengals and Reds, but every once in a while I will address something else from the sports world.

My maiden voyage in that respect is the reaction to Tiger Woods' statement today - his first public appearance since news of his extreme infidelity broke in November.

I didn't have a problem with anything Tiger said. I fully expected a scripted, phony statement and that's what I got. He said what he needed to say and it was really a brilliant way for him to handle the situation. No questions from reporters. Touch on sensitive subjects like photographers stalking his kids and religion (apparently Tiger has found Buddhism) - things that most people would never challenge. Whoever wrote that speech did a fine job.

However, what I do have a problem with are the golf-loving reporters like Rick Reilly and Andy North who are willing to buy every word that Tiger said. He is so important to their favorite sport that a guy I usually respect like Reilly was going on and on about how "Tiger was contrite" and "Tiger was sincere and I've never seen him like that" when Reilly appeared on ESPN immediately following the speech.

Part of being a reporter is calling out BS when you see it. Colin Cowherd, for all his faults, was at least calling a spade a spade about Tiger's statement on his radio show. Parts of it might have been sincere, but the vast majority was scripted nonsense.

People would be foolish to buy every word he said, but that won't stop the Pollyanna golf media from continuing to slurp Tiger and fall for the act.

He's simply too important to their sport - far more important than any other athlete is to their particular sport in the world.

So, again, I don't fault Woods for the matter in which he handled his first public appearance. It was almost exactly what I was expecting (OK, other than the Buddhism part). But the golf reporters I've heard comment on the matter thus far are either very naïve, or simply willing to lie through their teeth in order to protect the sport they love.

It's going to be interesting to see when Tiger returns to the golf course. I certainly think it will be this year and I wouldn't be surprised if he played in all four majors.

As for Elin, is there a betting line on whether she stands by her man? Tough call there. I thought for sure she was out the door for a while, but now it sounds like she's actually considering staying together for the kids' sake. And it's not a money play because either way she is going to be a filthy-rich woman. "Could Almost Buy Sweden" rich. So, I still tend to think she will leave, but maybe Tiger's newly-discovered Zen powers will lure her back in.

 
Translating Hobson: Bengals won’t draft ‘Best Player Available’
Written by Dave Biddle   
Monday, 15 February 2010 14:27
There is this comedic act that some NFL teams try to pull off called "always taking the best player available" in the draft.

"Reaching based on need" is a cardinal sin and there is not a single team out there that would admit to doing it publicly.

"Yeah, we know player A is better, but we took player B just because we're atrocious at tight end."

No, but you will hear them say things like, "He was the best player on our board. It wasn't just a need pick. We live by the ‘BPA' principle. We would use the franchise tag on a kicker before we'd ever reach for a player based on need." (Whoops, bad example if you're the Bengals. But who wouldn't rather have "Shank" Graham than T.J. Houshmandzadeh? Chalk up another wise move by Mike Brown.)

In other words, front office personnel will lie through their teeth when it comes to their draft strategy. Some teams really do stay true to the best player available formula, but the majority fall into the trap of drafting based on need.

For years, the Bengals have proclaimed a "best player available" battle plan when it comes to the draft. Marvin Lewis will tell any reporter that wants to listen that they want the best football player on the board regardless of position. And there are rare cases they make good on their word - like Rey Maualuga and Michael Johnson last year. They were not looking for a linebacker or defensive end that early, but they couldn't pass up their talent. In other words, they did what good teams do.

However, far too often the Bengals draft solely based on need - and it has burned them several times. They were set on drafting a non-smallish wide receiver in the second round of the 2008 draft and they held to their plan - even though it meant taking Jerome Simpson and passing on DeSean Jackson. There are numerous other examples during the Mike Brown era.

Entering the 2010 draft, fans can expect the Bengals to once again throw the BPA strategy out the window. They are hell-bent on finding a tight end and wide receiver early.

Geoff Hobson does a great job as the editor of Bengals.com and he will drop hints from time to time on what the team is thinking. He was recently asked via email by one of his readers if the Bengals would look for a safety or pass-rusher early in the draft if a good one fell in their lap. I don't necessarily agree with the positions that the reader mentioned, but basically he was asking if the Bengals would go "best player available" or draft "based on need." Here was Hobson's response:

"Can't agree with you on this one. Their franchise quarterback just turned 30 years old without a playoff victory and he's withering on the vine without weapons. All this ‘Carson Is Done' talk is absolutely ridiculous. They've got a top five quarterback when it comes to his arm, his physical tools, experience and his track record, but they've got to get him some help.

"They don't have a guy that can stretch the field, they don't have a consistent slot receiver, and their best receiver just turned 32. Plus, their only tight end under contract, Chase Coffman is a medical mystery. So if they don't take a receiver at No. 21, it has to be a tight end. They shouldn't think defense until Saturday and the fourth round.

"Sure, they could use a pass-rusher, no question. But these guys can't score. You've got to average 23 to 24 points a game to be a factor and getting them to 20 is like listening to fingernails drag across a chalkboard. You know they can play top five defense with what they've got, particularly if they add some offense and get some people healthy.

"They could ignore the tight end issue as long as they had wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the middle of the field gobbling up every third-down throw over the middle for an offense that lived on three-receiver sets. But those days are long gone and they desperately need a young tight end that can both catch and block. They may not be able to wait beyond No. 21 to get him.

"You can make an argument for safety, but not in the first round. And, yes, they need the pass rusher at end. But you've got to have priorities and their playoff run died because they couldn't throw it, not because they couldn't stop it."

OK, here are my thoughts: Hobson makes great (yet obvious) points that the Bengals and Palmer need a WR to stretch the field and they need a non-scrub tight end. However, he acts as if the only way to accomplish these things is through the draft.

Listen, Aaron Hernandez from Florida might be a great tight end and many are projecting that the Bengals will take him at pick No. 21. And if he's the best player available, that's great. What I don't want to happen is for the Bengals to go into the draft saying, "Alright, we need a TE and the WR in the first two rounds, period." But that sounds like exactly what they are doing. That's how you end up with players like Simpson and Coffman on your roster, mistakes that good front offices would learn from.

Hernandez seems like he might be a solid pick, but it would be foolish for the Bengals to reach on a wide receiver in the second round. If there is a good one there whose draft grade is the second round, take him. But Bengal fans are begging you to not reach for anyone - especially that early in the draft. There are always players that fall right into your lap that you are not expecting. The good teams are not afraid to draft them even if they are well-stocked at that particular position. The bad organizations draft based on need.

There are things called free agency and trades if you need to fill some holes. The draft is the best way to build a roster - no question about it - but that doesn't justify reaching for players based on need.

(Also, I have to say Hobson was being kind calling Coffman a "medical mystery." Others - like me - might just call him a bust and leave it at that.)

I want the Bengals to get a game-breaking wide receiver as much as anyone. I usually hate the idea of trading up in the draft, but I am endorsing that idea this year if it means landing Dez Bryant. He will be a great value for anyone if he slips past the first 10 picks. No way he slips to No. 21 though, so the Bengals would have to trade up to get him.

I also want a good tight end, but are you telling me if a stud defensive player falls into the Bengals lap in the first three rounds, they shouldn't even consider it? I strongly disagree. I am a BPA guy all the way and it's too bad the Bengals often stray from what they proclaim is their draft strategy. Of course they don't "need" a defensive player early. But if there is a future Pro Bowler there, you take him, or you live to regret it. When in doubt -- all things being equal -- draft based on need. All other occasions, draft the best player available.

 
Bengals land Matt Jones; Reds ink Kip Wells
Written by Dave Biddle   
Friday, 12 February 2010 14:56
It is no secret that the Cincinnati Bengals need to upgrade their wide receiver corps this offseason and their first move was to sign Matt Jones.

Jones, who has battled drug problems and did not play in the NFL in 2009, was a first-round draft pick of the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2005 (No. 21 overall) despite the fact that he had never played the WR position in his life. Jones was a quarterback at Arkansas (and in high school) but the Jags fell for the latest combine stud that couldn't produce on the field. Jones is an impressive athlete at 6-foot-6, 218 pounds and he can run the 40 in 4.4 seconds. However, being an NFL wide receiver is about all the nuances like running good routes, having a knack for getting open and having reliable hands. Jones is not known for doing any of those things well.

Jones will turn 27 in April and this is definitely a low-risk signing for the Bengals. He will make $700,000 if he makes the team, which is just a shade above the five-year veteran minimum. The team can release him at any time with no penalty and he apparently picked the Bengals over the Tennessee Titans.

In four NFL seasons, Jones has 166 receptions for 2,153 yards (13 yards per catch) and 15 touchdowns. He actually produced his best year in 2008 when he had 65 receptions for 761 yards (11.7 ypc) and two touchdowns.

At best, this is a so-so move and the Bengals better not be done addressing the wide receiver position this offseason. And I don't think they are.

I would love to see them trade up and draft Dez Bryant (and I am usually against trading up) or perhaps even trade the first-round pick for Brandon Marshall. But yeah, I know, our heads might explode if Chad Ochocinco and Marshall were on the same team.

Reds re-sign Wells

Kip Wells was solid for the Cincinnati Reds down the stretch last season (while the Reds were in that meaningless winning surge that hurt their draft position this year ... but I digress...) and the Reds re-signed him to a minor league deal this week. In 10 appearances last year for the Reds, including seven starts, Wells was 2-3 with a 4.66 ERA. In 46.1 innings, he gave up 37 hits, walked 22 and struck out 25. He will turn 33 in April.

I expect Wells to be at AAA Louisville for the majority of the season. In fact, if he is with the Reds, that is not a good sign because it probably means one of the expected starters are injured. Wells does have an outside shot at winning the No. 5 starter's job, but he will have to beat out the likes of Aroldis Chapman, Justin Lehr, Matt Maloney, Micah Owings and Travis Wood.

As I said in my last blog entry, I am hoping to see Wood win the job. He has the most upside of the group and could be ready for prime time after an excellent 2009 split between AA and AAA.

Still no word on Gomes

The one final move the Reds might make before spring training begins is the signing of outfielder Jonny Gomes to a minor league deal. However, nothing has happened yet and Gomes is clearly waiting for a better offer. And I can't blame him after his very-solid 2009 season. Hopefully the Reds and Gomes can come to an agreement though -- they need each other this year.

There is also talk that the Reds are in talks with Johnny Damon, but don't believe any of it. There is a better chance of you suiting up for the Redlegs this year. Look for Damon to sign with the Tigers.

 
Reds’ Lineup Taking Shape
Written by Dave Biddle   
Sunday, 31 January 2010 12:25
With the signing of shortstop Orlando Cabrera to a one-year, $3 million contract (with a club option of $3 million for 2011 with a $1 buyout) the Cincinnati Reds' starting lineup is almost set.

The only other move that is expected to happen is the signing of outfielder Jonny Gomes to a minor-league deal. Last year, Gomes hit .267 and clubbed 20 home runs (and had 51 RBIs) in just 281 at-bats, but the Reds chose to not offer him arbitration this winter. That made Gomes a free agent, but no one gobbled him up. Therefore, there are signs that the Reds will re-sign him with no risk to the team. Gomes would then compete with the likes of Wladamir Balentien, Chris Dickerson, Chris Heisey and Laynce Nix for playing time in left field (which will undoubtedly end up being a platoon situation).

As for Cabrera, 35, he's a career .275 hitter with a career OPS of .719. He is very durable (155, 161 and 160 games-played the last three seasons) and still has some pop in his bat. In 2009 with Oakland and Minnesota, he hit a combined .282 with nine home runs, 77 RBIs and 13 stolen bases. (He has 114 career HRs and 197 career steals.)

Cabrera used to be solid defensively and even won two Gold Gloves during his career (2001, '07), but his defense really fell off last season when he led all Major League shortstops with 25 errors. Was that a one-year aberration, or has Cabrera lost it defensively? I'm not sure, but I am glad Paul Janish will not be the everyday SS entering the season. And the Reds cans still use Janish as a defensive replacement late in games.

Overall, this was a quality offseason for the Reds, which was highlighted by the five-year, $30 million contract signed by Cuban left-handed pitcher Aroldis Chapman. He will turn 22 on Feb. 28 (at least we think that's his birthday) and is not expected to make an impact in the Major Leagues until 2011. His fastball consistently touches 97 MPH and he can get it up to 100. He needs to work on command and will likely begin the season in AA or AAA. It will be interesting to follow his progress during spring as he does have an outside chance at winning the No. 5 starter's job.

The top four are set with Bronson Arroyo, Aaron Harang, Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey. (Edinson Volquez is out until at least August as he recovers from Tommy John surgery.) The other candidates for the No. 5 spot in the rotation are Matt Maloney, Micah Owings, Justin Lehr and my personal favorite, Travis Wood.

As for the lineup, it's easy to imagine how Dusty Baker will fill out his Opening Day card now that Cabrera is in the fold:

  1. Drew Stubbs - CF
  2. Orlando Cabrera - SS
  3. Joey Votto - 1B
  4. Brandon Phillips - 2B
  5. Scott Rolen - 3B
  6. Jay Bruce - RF
  7. Balentien/Dickerson/Gomes/Heisey/Nix - LF
  8. Ramon Hernandez/Ryan Hanigan - C

The Reds certainly won't be favored to win anything this year. Hell, it's been since 2000 since they've had a winning record. However, if they can stay healthy this season, who knows. The position players are solid and the pitching staff is still one of the best the Reds have had in my lifetime (I'm 33) even with Volquez out most of the year. The bullpen also appears to be at least decent led by closer Francisco Cordero, as well as Arthur Rhodes, Nick Masset, Jared Burton, Danny Ray Herrera and Carlos Fisher. (And guys like Mike Lincoln, Pedro Viola and probably Owings also battling for spots in the ‘pen.)

The Reds are moving to their new spring training facility in Goodyear, Ariz., this year and it should be an exciting spring as we count down to Opening Day on April 5.

 
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About Three Way Chili

This is a blog devoted to the Cincinnati Bengals and the Cincinnati Reds, with some occasional commentary on items from elsewhere in the sports world. Those are the three ingredients that make up this heaping plate of Three-Way Chili.

As for some background on the site...

Publisher Dave Biddle has been a sports journalist since 1999.

He is currently the assistant editor of the Bucknuts Media Network in Columbus, Ohio, where he covers Ohio State football and basketball. He also writes occasional stories for ESPN.com, which Bucknuts.com is affiliated with.

Biddle has also written a book during his career. He is the author of the "Troy Smith Story: The uncensored biography of Ohio State's Heisman-winning quarterback." It was published in August of 2008.

Biddle has served as the sports editor of a pair of Ohio newspapers: the Kettering-Oakwood Times in the Dayton area (1999-2000), and the Madison Press in London (2000-04).

A '99 graduate of Wright State University - where he was the sports editor of the campus paper The Guardian for two years - Biddle resides in the Columbus area with his wife and two daughters.

As a lifelong Cincinnati Bengals and Cincinnati Reds fan, he has put himself through far too much pain over the years. But alas, he can finally vent (and celebrate the few occasions when something goes right for the Cincy pro sports teams) thanks to Three-Way Chili.


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